Q4 2022 – Sarona Emerging Markets Monitor
The global economic outlook continues to remain challenging, particularly given the effects of higher inflation, as a result of supply side imbalances following covid-19 and subsequently the war in Ukraine. Energy and food prices remain major contributors to this surge with prospects of further rises in interest rates going into next year. With recessionary warning signs flashing, a flight to safety has strengthened the US dollar, with the index (DXY) peaking above 13% before softening to 4.6% YTD. Despite emerging markets facing higher import costs and stronger inflationary pressures as a result, including the prospects of depleted currency reserves, economic growth forecasts remain positive for this year, albeit at more moderated levels.